Private markets are seeing a surge in dispersion that makes manager and vintage selection as consequential as the underlying strategy. Alexander Sing warns that choosing the wrong year or the wrong manager can swing returns from strong outperformance to severe drawdowns. Top vintages can deliver 40%, while bottom vintages have fallen 10%. The gap between top-quartile and bottom-quartile managers mirrors that volatility, turning selection into a high-stakes decision.

The challenge is consistency. Sing notes that without a professional team evaluating managers and vintages continuously, “it’s really hard to get that right all the time.” Missing a single cycle can impair long-term portfolio outcomes, especially when exposure is concentrated in one year or one team.

Diversification becomes the counterweight. Multi-manager, multi-vintage solutions dilute the impact of a single poor entry point and reduce concentration risk. By spreading exposure across cycles, investors aim for smoother long-term performance rather than binary outcomes tied to one vintage. The approach shifts the focus from perfect timing to risk-managed participation, especially as dispersion increases across the private-market universe.

Source: Video - BMO Global Management: Mastering Manager and Vintage Selection