The curtain falls on 2025, first year of a presidential cycle, and history whispers sweet nothings for December. Kim Inglis, senior portfolio manager at Raymond James, scans 80 years of S&P 500 data: 12 instances where November closed up 5% or more, each ushering a positive December averaging 2% gains. "Those are fantastic statistics." she says, as markets wrap a year chasing norms amid policy pivots.

Election years often shine, with pre-November rallies setting bullish tapes. Yet Inglis tempers the tale: history rhymes, not repeats. Volatility from fiscal feints or Fed fades could snag the sprint, especially if inflation echoes linger. Investors, eyeing 2026's rate relief, ponder if this cycle's juice sustains or jolts.

Opportunities glint in seasonal tailwinds, bolstering year-end rebalances toward cyclicals or credits. Risks? Overreliance on averages ignores black swans like trade tiffs. Balanced tilts, blending large-cap anchors with mid-cap domestics, may capture the lift without the lurch. As advisors close books, December's nod invites cautious cheer: norms favor upside, but prudence pays the premium.

Source: Video - What Market History Suggests About December Performance